Japan likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity in October, months after Olympics: researcher

Japan has arranged to buy 314 million doses from Pfizer, Moderna Inc. and AstraZeneca Plc, and that would be more than enough for its population of 126 million. (File/AFP)

Japan is likely to achieve herd immunity to COVID-19 through mass inoculations only months after the planned Tokyo Olympics, even though it has locked in the biggest quantity of vaccines in Asia, according to a London-based forecaster.
That would be a blow to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga who has pledged to have enough shots for the populace by the middle of 2021, as it trails most major economies in starting COVID-19 inoculations.
鈥淛apan looks to be quite late in the game,鈥� Rasmus Bech Hansen, the founder of British research firm Airfinity, told Reuters. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e dependent on importing many (vaccines) from the US And at the moment, it doesn鈥檛 seem very likely they will get very large quantities of for instance, the Pfizer vaccine.鈥�
Hansen said Japan will not reach a 75% inoculation rate, a benchmark for herd immunity, until around October, about two months after the close of the Summer Games.
Japan has arranged to buy 314 million doses from Pfizer, Moderna Inc. and AstraZeneca Plc, and that would be more than enough for its population of 126 million.
But problems seen in vaccine rollouts elsewhere stir doubt that Japan will get those supplies on time.
Taro Kono, Japan鈥檚 vaccine program chief, said last week it would begin its first shots in February, starting with 10,000 medical workers, but he walked back on a goal to secure enough vaccine supplies by June.
Japan is particularly vulnerable because its initial inoculation plan is dependent on Pfizer doses, which are at risk of being taken back by US authorities to fight the pandemic there.
鈥淭here simply aren鈥檛 enough vaccines for all the countries that Pfizer made agreements with,鈥� Hansen said.
鈥淎merica needs 100 million more Pfizer vaccines to be on the safe side to reach their goals, and a lot of those 100 million would come from the Japan pile.鈥�
Representatives from Pfizer and Japan鈥檚 health ministry did not immediately respond to Airfinity鈥檚 forecasts. Previously, Pfizer has stated that the company was working with Japanese regulators 鈥渢o make COVID 19 vaccine doses available as quickly as possible to the people in Japan.鈥�